Who does it affect if a person doesn't get vaccinated?

Some out there have questioned why they should get vaccinated, using phrases like "My Body, My Choice". Here is a non-exhaustive list of why it matters to others, even if you are young and healthy enough to likely avoid serious consequences.

1. If hospitals are overrun with COVID-19 cases, they can't as easily manage those with other issues. Same with surgeries, etc.
2. There are those who legitimately cannot get vaccinated. Currently this includes those with very serious immune system disorders, who likely would have serious issues should they catch the disease and those under the age of 12. A person choosing to not get vaccinated puts the most vulnerable around them at risk of getting sick through no option of their own.
3. Shortages happen when factories are shut down because of quarentined workers. This has happened many times in the pandemic, and has caused a number of issues. Not being vaccinated contributes to this problem
4. Getting vaccinated will allow people to travel more, both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. In 2019 a US citizen could travel to 185 destinations without a visa. Today, that number is around 75, although with many more restrictions than in 2019. Other countries are afraid of the high levels of infection in the US, and not willing to take the high risk of catching this infection stronger.

In other words, one's decision to not get vaccinated can and does have an affect on those who choose to get vaccinated, those who cannot for medical reasons get vaccinated, and can result in shortages of goods or services. It is critical that we get COVID-19 under control, and it can be done simply. Getting an appointment to get vaccinated in the US is easy, look to your pharmacy, Walmart, CVS, Walgreens, etc, they more than likely are taking appointments within a matter of a few days. There is no cost to this, it is safe, and the sooner we all get vaccinated, the sooner we can go back to normal life! And, in the words of Mathew 25:40, "Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

On another note, in 1905, this issue was brought before the Supreme Court. In a 7-2 decision, they declared that the government could, under the principal of self-defense, mandate vaccines, with the exception if it "be apparent or can be shown with reasonable certainty that he is not at the time a fit subject of vaccination or that vaccination, by reason of his then condition, would seriously impair his health or probably cause his death."

I do want to add that this principal should be very carefully managed. A person should have control over their body, so long as it doesn't affect other around them. Anything like forced sterilization, forced medical treatment if it is specifically resolved, or other such things. A vaccine to the vast majority of people causes nothing more than very short term side effects, and has an incredible ability to improve the life of those around them. Getting vaccinated simply put helps everyone, which is why the United States has invested so much, under both President Trump and President Biden, to getting a vaccine available as soon as possible.

Should you get a COVID-19 vaccine?

I came across a random person on the internet recently who stated the following, and I just had to respond more carefully. "I have been begging to get this virus that kills less than 98% of the people it infects. Short of licking public door knobs I have literally tried everything. I have an autoimmune disease, the vaccine will more than likely take me out, but if I allow my body to deal with it naturally I will have a better chance."

There is so much in that statement to comment on. First of all, let's talk about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. As of today, 157 million people in the United States have received at least one shot of a vaccine, with 123 million being fully vaccinated. Of all of those more than 100 million people, to my knowledge a single person has died as a result of the vaccine. While this is tragic, it has likely saved the lives of hundreds of thousands of people during that time period.

According to the CDC, a few hundred (2 to 5 per million) have had anaphylaxis after the vaccine. This is why one is required to wait 15 minutes after Pfizer or Moderna. Each site that administers these vaccines is required to keep an eye out for the symptoms and administer medicine, and no one has died as a result of that.

The Johnson and Johnson (Jansen) vaccine, while not subject to anaphylaxis, is subject to an even rarer, but more serious problem. 28 women, of 9 million vaccinated, have reported Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), a serious blood clot condition. This one, unlike the anaphylaxis previously discussed, can happen as long as 6 weeks after the vaccine is administered. These women all had low platlet count. If you are considering getting vaccinated, have had issues with low platlet counts in the past, and are female between the ages of 18 and 50, you might consider a different vaccine to remove that risk completely. At least one women reportedly died after receiving this vaccine. It is worth noting that this is a potential side effect of COVID-19, and likely the same individuals who had the TTS after receiving the Jansen vaccine would have had similar issues should they have caught the real COVID-19. Of some note, there has been at least one male diagnosed with the same issue, although it appears to be much rarer in men than women.

But wait, I heard there was 4000 deaths from the vaccinated? What's up with that? Well, anything that could remotely be considered a side effect of receiving any vaccine can be reported. To date, the CDC has stated that 4,434 individuals died who were vaccinated. Each one of these is independently reviewed, and with the exception of the TTS previously mentioned, none have been traced to the vaccine. For comparison, if one assumes a human lives about 80 years, than every day there is about a 1 in 29200 chance of dying. This means that of 100 million people, about 3424 would have died on the day they received the vaccine by random. Considering that deaths can be reported for days after being vaccinated, and it seems pretty clear that if there is a chance of dying, it is pretty slim.

What about the natural immunity? The current thinking is that natural immunity works for about 3 months. There are a number of repeat COVID-19 cases, and that seems to be as long as we can be confident it will work. Vaccine derived immunity is higher, to the point of working for at least a year. We can look at the antibodies to determine how well it is working, which is why we know this to be the case. My wife, who tested positive for COVID-19 in early January, got vaccinated recently just to make sure she doesn't get it again.

But wait, is this vaccine even approved? The COVID-19 vaccine is approved under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). What does that even mean? First of all, every single test that is normally done with a vaccine to demonstrate it is safe was done with the COVID-19 vaccines. This includes having 20,000 adults vaccinated to test for any possible complications, for at least 2 months prior to submitting the results. Any issue, even remote, causes the trials to be put on hold until the issue can be understood. This was done a number of times, as can be seen from this article. While the desire to get this vaccine out there was immense, the desire to make certain it was safe was even higher. Even the smallest rumor of an approved vaccine having issues has lead to the halting of the vaccine distribution, as has happened with the Jansen vaccine with respect to TTS. If it is determined to still be safe, then the vaccines can continue. Full approval is currently being worked on by Pfizer, and Moderna likely will follow suit this month. The single biggest question that a full authorization is likely to answer that we don't have now is how long will the immunity last? With people only having been vaccinated for 2 months before the EUA, we only knew the vaccine would work for 2 months. Now we have enough data to make predictions about for how long it will actually work, which is likely closer to a year or two. Is it worth it to wait for 6 months to know that the vaccine would only work for 6 months? I leave that up to you to determine.

But being vaccinated or not, it's my choice, shouldn't I be allowed to make it and not be forced to in any way whatsoever? There are some who legitimately cannot get vaccinated, including those severely affected by an immune disorder. Those people deserve to go in public just as much as anyone. Who are you to limit their choices because you opted to not get a free vaccine that is currently easily available? Another example, I would love to travel the world, but currently most countries will not accept a person from the United States, because the risk of COVID-19 exposure is too high here. Some allow fully vaccinated, but others do not even allow that. While no single individual not getting vaccinated will make a huge difference, even 1% of the population can.

Basically when it comes to any business opening up, there are 3 choices that can be made. They can keep the business closed, and lose out on income and providing that service. They can keep the business open to all, but risk spreading COVID-19. Or they can open the business taking reasonable percations, like limiting it to those with the vaccine, and be just as safe, and still opened up.

I do want to say that I'm not in favor of most places requiring vaccination. I am in favor of anywhere that has a high chance of spreading COVID-19, which means indoors densly populated, and not something "essential" being allowed to make that decision. This would include cruise ships, movie theaters, and similar locations, but not public transportation, government services, medical facilities, etc. Requiring those using those services to take percautions still makes sense. Stores are not in this group, the risk of transmission in a store has always been fairly low. Gyms, well, I'm a bit more mixed about this one, would need some thought.

The bottom line is this. If you are a healthy individual living in the United States ages 12+, you should get vaccinated ASAP. If you have a condition that was not fully tested, like an autoimmune disorder, pregnacy, or similar condition, I strongly advice you talk with your doctor and ask them what they advise, and follow it. Do not leave it up to me, or any other random person on the internet to make that decision, talk with a doctor you trust that knows your medical history! But get it if you can, and ask if you have any questions, because you getting vaccinated might be the difference between a friend or a friend of a friend who has a disease that can't get the vaccine catching COVID-19 and dying. It is a small price to pay to help others!

Plague of Fiery Serpents and COVID-19

Numbers 21 tells the story of the Israelites being affected by a plague of fiery serpents. Moses, by the direction of God, made a serpent of brass and asked the Israelites to look at it to be cured from the plague. While many of them did, many of them, thinking the thing was so simple, did not. Another example is in 2 Kings, chapter 5, where Pharpar is asked to bathe in the river Damascus seven times, a particularly dirty river, to cure leprosy. At first he was hesitent, but then, in verse 13, we read "Naaman's servants went to him and said, "My father, if the prophet had told you to do some great thing, would you not have done it? How much more, then, when he tells you, `Wash and be cleansed'!"

With this plague, we have been asked to do a few similar things, ones that even have the backing of science, but have been encouraged by religious leaders, including those of my faith, that of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. Of some note I can't find anything from any apostles, but it was certainly encouraged by example from the highest levels. We have been asked to wear masks to help prevent the spread of COVID-19. We have been encouraged to socially distance ourselves to minimize the spread. And while I haven't seen it explicitly stated, we are encouraged to get vaccinated when we are able to to even further prevent the spread.

While the effects of not following these simple guidance aren't as dramatic as that of the fiery serpents, I can't help but wonder how many people have had a similar reaction of that of the Isrealites, of not doing the thing because of its simplicity. It sadens me deeply that it seems like the evangelicals are those on the leading edge of anti-mask and anti-vaccine behavior. To me, these are those who are not looking at the brass serpent.

How has President Trump really handled COVID-19?

It is pretty widely stated that President Trump has done a horrible job of managing COVID-19. Let's look in to how truthful that statement. As I usually do, we will talk about the actions coming out of the White House contrasted with what President Trump did via Twitter and other direct outreach efforts.

Let's start looking way back. COVID-19 was discussed about as a very harmful disease in China. For most of the month of January, it was only a concern to those who had been in China recently. The CDC began to start screening passengers coming from China on January 17, only 3 weks after the disease became publicly known. At that time, President Trump was informed of the disease, but was not particularly interested in it.

The CDC, under their own guidance, developed a test for the disease, but it was found to be defective, causing delays. Only the most likely cases were tested, primarily those who had either been to Wuhan, China, where it first was noticed, or had close contact with someone who had.

The White House did formally announce a Coronavirus Task Force at the end of January. The primary concern then was to get US citizens home from China safely, and keeping travelors out of the US. In fact, shortly thereafter, they began to restrict people from entering the US who had been in China, the first such restriction in 50 years in the US. The US was the 7th country to have such restrictions, but was not the first by about a week.

To this point, while somewhat typical of Trump to be dismissive, the response coming from the CDC and the White House seems to be quite reasonable. During the month of Febuary, the biggest concern was the possibility of a lack of Personal Protective Equipment, such as masks and glove and other such things, as China was then in a state of lockdown, and manufactures much of those goods. President Trump requested funds on Feb 5 to help secure such equipment, but it took over a month before the funding was authorized. During this time period, President Trump continued with a pattern seen during much of his Presidency. The official actions coming out of the White House were much the right thing, but he was extremely dismissive of it publicly. This may have contributed to the delay in funding, as so many people were dismissive, despite the White House knowing full well it had serious damage potential early in the month.

The bottom line is, 3 major issues plagued the US in the early days of COVID-19. The first was a lack of a good test, which I have not seen, but was primarily a CDC issue. The second was the lack of funding for personal protective gear. The last was related to the first, because tests could not be done quickly enough, the disease escaped in to the community. COVID-19 genuinely didn't seem as bad in the US as other countries in those days. In my opinion, except for these issues, it seems like it was relatively well managed.

As a preemptive action, many states began issuing restrictions in early March. Mid-March, the first formal guidance came out of the White House, restricting gatherings of more than 50 people Shortly thereafter, that number was decreased to 10. This was perhaps a week or so late, but was very much the right thing to do.

Another item of note is Operation Warp Speed, a greatly accelerated vaccine program. In my opinion, this is the single best thing that President Trump has done to combat COVID-19. This program works with private labs to help them work faster, including in many instances pre-ordering potential candidates even before Phase 3 trials had been complete. In the very early days, Bill Gates was talking about doing this, however, it seems he stepped aside after the US started to fund these efforts directly. It seems like Operation Warp Speed was in development at that time, but was not publicly annouced until the end of April.

As there is now a vaccine that is approaching the critical stage of Phase 3 trials compelte, let's look at what Operation Warp Speed really is. Fundementally it does 4 things. First, it directly funded several vaccine efforts. Secondly, it pre-ordered candidates to allow for manufacturing before the final approval was made. The same safety standards apply to the public, although the 3 phases of vaccine trials could be combined to some degree. Fundementally it is the same thing as Bill Gate's idea, fund multiple candidates production lines before the vaccine has been approved to speed up the process of getting it in to people's hands. It also helps facilitate the logistics of transporting the vaccine to states, and requires each state to have a plan to distribute it to the masses.

From May to the present date, I would say that by far President Trump's biggest problem has been a lack of following the guidelines that the CDC and White House are issuing. President Trump frequently refused to wear a mask, it wasn't until July 12, about 3 months after the CDC suggested wearing masks, before President Trump was photographed wearing a mask. He was ferquently dismissive of them. It is worth noting that for each rally he had on his re-election campaign, each atendee was provided a mask and encouraged to use them, although as Trump was so dismissive of them publicly, it seems that was not in fact followed.

So how do I grade Trump's response overall? He did a fair job at trying to restrict the entrance of COVID-19 in to the US in the early days. While he recognized the problems early on, he was unable to convince Congress to fund measures quickly, likely owing to his dismissal of the disease. Still, until the end of April, I think he did a fair job. After April, he was less involved in the day-to-day fight for COVID-19, not issuing further guidelines, trying to coordinate with states, and setting a bad example with his campaign rallies and lack of using a mask. Therefore, I rate his plan to fast-track a vaccine as good, his January-April performance as fair, and his May to current date as poor.